Longshot’s Never Been on Honor Roll But Has Been On a Roll with Week 4 NFL Picks

I would like to first start out by saying that the Los Angeles Rams have already won this year’s Vince Lombardi and that everyone else is just playing for second place.

What Jared Goff did against that stellar Viking defense on Thursday night was nothing short of amazing. The third year player from Cal torched Minnesota for 465 yards and five touchdowns. Four of his TD passes came in the first half. They are drawing comparisons from the “Greatest Show on Turf” and they may actually be better.

Now that I got that off my chest I found a couple games coming up this weekend that I feel strongly about. I’m 6-for-10 on the season, which isn’t too bad, but after this week I’m pretty confident that I can start charging for this advice. If you want to reach out and thank me you can follow me on insta @jlongtoniii or tweet me @longshotlongton.


1: At Chicago -3 Tampa Bay

The Chicago Bears have one of the best defenses in the league. The addition Khalil Mack alone has propelled this team to at least mediocrity and swung the pendulum in their favor on that side of the ball. On the flip side they have one of the worst offenses in the league and it looks like Mitchell Trubisky is still learning how to read defenses and play at a high level. The Bear’s offense is throwing the ball for less than 200 yards per game. The Bucs, on the other hand, are airing it out for over twice that and last week Ryan Fitzpatrick became the first quarterback in NFL history to start the season with three 400 yard passing games in-a-row. This streak will be broken against a pesky Bears D, but I see this game going down to the wire with either team coming out on top. That’s why I’ll take the Bucs and the points.

Final Score: Buccaneers 24 Bears 20


Seattle -3 At Arizona

Let the Josh Rosen era begin in Arizona. After three weeks of play the Cardinals are last in the league in passing offense and that’s why they are making the switch at the play calling position. The 10th overall pick in this year’s draft class will have his hands full with a Seattle defense that will be licking their chops. Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco,  Matt Stafford and Russel Wilson are all pro-bowl quarterbacks and also only threw for one score in their debuts. This trend will continue Sunday with Josh Rosen and the Seahawks will win by double digits. Russel Wilson is going to torch the No. 19 Cardinal passing D for multiple scores and welcome Rosen into the league with a loss. This spread should be at least 7, but what the hell do I know?

Final Score: Seahawks 27 Cardinals 17


Philadelphia -3.5 At Tennessee

The Titans lost the longest game in NFL history in the first week of the season and won the most boring game last week in their 9-6 win over the Jags. I’m honestly not sure how they have a winning record when they have had more points scored against them then they put up. Either way they have the defending Super Bowl champs coming to town. Last week Carson Wentz made his return after a nine month hiatus due to a torn ACL. He had a mediocre game, but led his team to a 20-16 win over the Colts. This week he’ll have more reps under his belt and the 2017 MVP candidate should have himself a day against a Titans team that no one is really sure is good or not. I see the Eagles showing everyone why they won the Super Bowl and that they should be talked about more after this week. I’m pretty sure the odds makers f’d this one up.

Final Score Eagles 33 Titans 20



At LA Chargers -10 San Francisco

The Chargers were blown out of the water by the Rams last week in a battle for what team LA is going to cared about less last week. Side note: how does an ungrateful fake ass town get two NFL teams!? They have two playoff teams and neither can fill the stands. Anywho… The Chargers are 1-2 and need to get back on track. That will happen this week when they bring in the Jimmy G’less 49ers, a team that signed a backup quarterback to one of the highest NFL contracts without much evidence that he can even throw the goddam ball. How stupid is that!? Well the universe served up San Fran’s front office a little poetic justice and the football gods made sure the rest of the league saw what happened after they mortgaged the franchise for a guy that’s made of glass. Well he’s broken and the Chargers are going to feast. This is a lot of points, but I’m pretty confident that Philip Rivers will open the Antonio flood Gates and pour it on. Chargers roll and get their season back on track.

Final Score: Chargers 38 49ers 17


At New England -7 Miami

The Phins are on a roll and the Pats are gasping for air. I know what you’re thinking, “John we know you’re a Phins homer and you just want to gloat about your team.” And yeah I do, but I’ve seen this too many times before. The Miami Dolphins have not won a game in Foxboro in over 10 years. They also beat three shitty teams on their way to becoming one of only three teams to be undefeated. Well that’s going to end this week.

We all know that the Pats traditionally get off to a slow start just about every year. They use the month of September as an extension of the pre season and take an inventory on what they need to be successful. Well I think they now have a general idea and will restore order in the AFC East this weekend. I want so bad for the Dolphins to win, but they haven’t sold me just yet. Every season they make a case to get my hopes up and I think to myself, “maybe this is out year.” And just like clock work they rip my fuckin heart out, but I still come crawling back. They didn’t mean it. They love me. They said they wouldn’t do it again. If they can squeak out a win this week maybe I’ll start to talk shit, but the fact of the matter is they are prolly getting blown out. They’ll need more than seven to cover.

Final Score Patriots 31 Dolphins 21

There you have it. Money is going to be falling from the sky this Sunday and I just supplied you with a butterfly net to run around and catch it. Like always, this is a free service, but if you wanted to Venmo me some of you’re winnings to say thank you I’m not against it. I’m not going to give out my username, but if you looked hard enough you can find it.

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